May 10th Daily Watchlist - 7 rewatches, 3 new watches

Prior Day Market: S&P – up 0.07%; NSDQ microcap – up 0.5%;

Top watches today - $UPLMQ $ARGS $PRGN

First day watch à

CRNT looking for it to break $1.60. First large green day yesterday with 20%. Would short on rejection in morning spike.

Levels: $1.60

NWBO LT d/t but bouncing off lows. G/r at $1.27 RL $1.30 (3%). OVAS LT d/t bouncing off lows as well as NWBO, break above $7.20 or fall below $6.80. Look for g/r $7.07 for $6.50-$6 (9%)  RL $7.20 (2%)

Multi-day watch à

Overextended shorts

UPLMQ two day spike piece of crap with LT D/T. Look for signs of weakness. Look to short into morning spike or below $0.40 if rejection. Fourth green day in a row, doubled in value.

Levels: Finished $0.378 but short below $0.35 RL $0.36.

ARGS had a massive spike recently met with large short selling. Spiked again for first day on Friday, look for levels to short into, has potential to squeeze like in the past. Could squeeze upwards but expecting fall, good below $5 for b/d.

Levels:  Below $7 with RL $7.13 (2%), look for morning rejection of $7.60.   

PRGN being watched for short squeezes, but up way too much and will come down, just a matter of when.

Levels: Went r/g on day and finished down from open.  Below $1.75 for $1.65 (10%) RL $1.78 (2%), below that for $1.50 - $1.46 (10%)

SPPI had run up this year but approaching $7.50-$8 2 year resistance levels which have historically rejected and rejected recently.

Rejected $7.30 in morning, falling 4% to $7 area. Expecting this to bounce further but looking to short on g/r.

SYNC had first red day after huge gap up and spike. Potential morning spike to short into strength, finished down 5% Friday.  Gone up 114% in two days.

Levels: below $3.30 RL $3.45 (5%) and then below $3 for $2.85 ish based on historical drop %.

UNT historical spikes always met with falls. Up 20%. Runs for a few days before fall in past.  

Levels: Rejection from $12.80 in morning spike. G/r signalled short. Watching for G/r at $12.10 area.

CLNE historical spikes met with selling AFTER 1-2 DAYS.

Recap à Fell below $3.20 for $3.05 low (5%). B/d below $3.15 (prev. day high and close).

May 9th Daily Watchlist - 13 new watches

Top watches today - $SPPI $SYNC $UPLMQ

First day watch à

Overextended shorts

SPPI had run up this year but approaching $7.50-$8 2 year resistance levels which have historically rejected and rejected recently. Looking for a double top on this but has potential to go further with only 11% gain on the day.

Levels: $7.30-$7.40 RL $7.50 (3%)

SYNC had first red day after huge gap up and spike. Potential morning spike to short into strength, finished down 5% Friday.  Gone up 114% in two days.

Levels: below $3.30 RL $3.45 (5%) and then below $3 for $2.85 ish based on historical drop %.

UPLMQ two day spike piece of crap with LT D/T. Look for signs of weakness. Look to short into morning spike or below $0.40 if rejection. Fourth green day in a row, doubled in value.

Levels: Below $0.40 RL $0.42 (5%) for $0.34 - $0.30.

ARGS had a massive spike recently met with large short selling. Spiked again for first day on Friday, look for levels to short into, has potential to squeeze like in the past. Could squeeze upwards but expecting fall, good below $5 for b/d.

Levels: $6.40 rejection. Below $5.80 for $5.30-$5.40. $5 b/d.

PRGN being watched for short squeezes, but up way too much and will come down, just a matter of when.  Short below $1.45 for $1 but risk of short squeeze so RL low at $1.52 (5%).  

UNT historical spikes always met with falls. Up 20%. Runs for a few days before fall in past.  

Levels: Couldn’t break $12.60. $13-13.20 could reject but only watching.

CVGI looking for it to spike some more to $3.25-$3.50 area again for short like in YTD chart. Expecting more green days from historical chart, before it falls. Low float.

EVDY check $7 level for short. Failed morning spike on Friday but finished above $6 resistance. First green day so just watching.

CLNE historical spikes met with selling AFTER 1-2 DAYS.

Levels: $3.20 rejection or fall below after morning spike.

GRWC and MWOG p&d’s. Watch for fall as they’ve spiked over 3-5 times value in April.

Earnings winners

SNCR fairly choppy historically but in large spike and falling below $35 resistance. First green day so could spike but would look to short around $40. I don’t like stocks priced this high, especially earnings winners like this.

Levels: $35, $40

ATTU slow D/T, sudden volume spike second green day. Earnings winner with potential to spike further. Low float but not great spikeability.

Levels: B/o or double top $9.60.

April 29th Daily Watchlist - 7 rewatches, 14 new watches

Testing out a new format, lots of interesting earnings and sympathy plays..

7 rewatches, 14 new watches

Prior Day Market: S&P – up 0.1%; NSDQ microcap – up 1%;

Top watches - $UNXL $LGCY $MITK $CBAY

Multi-day watch à

FMSA sand based products for oil and gas hugely overvalued

Category: Low float spike

Catalyst: Low float, historical spikes

Levels: $4.50 b/o for $5, RL $4.40

BCEI energy play doubled in ten days, fund. weak. but high spikeability

Category:

Catalyst: “lesser” energy play but high spikeability (37% short float)

Levels: B/d $3.95. RL $4.05.

CBAY biotech had first red

Category:

Catalyst: prior spikes of three/four days end in selling

Levels: $2.62 (day low), $2.57, target $2.40.

GSL containerships long term downtrend spiked and finished above high of $2.20

Category: Earnings winner

Catalyst: earnings

Levels: B/o $2.30 targeting 40 cents/share, RL $2.30

UNXL microstructure film materials with large hist. spikeability

Category: spikeability

Catalyst: contract wins weekly, low float

Levels: Double top $2.70

LGCY oil and gas play look for consolidation then weakness.

Category: Long term down spiked up on hype

Catalyst: Always falls on spikes to lower lows, “lesser” play

Levels: $2.90 b/d to $2.66 and $2 target below that. RL $3.00

GPL trending up metal play at highs from 2013, $1.40 to $1.95 in 5 days. Hype, watch for change in momentum.

Category: pump and dump

Catalyst: Hype/manipulation

Levels: $2 b/o to $2.30-$2.50

First day watch à

DHRM huuuge spikeability but choppy LT. Contract winner doubling in a day.

Category: Earnings/contract

Catalyst: at highs, contract

Levels: Buy above $2. $2.85 b/o. RL $1.89.

CDRB software company huge spikeability, double bottom bouncing and long term die pattern, will come down eventually but still some steam left I feel

Category: No news spiker

Catalyst: spikeability, bouncing off double bottom, room to extend further

Levels: $3.07 b/o for 7-14% at $3.30-$3.50.

BGC gap up above b/o

Category: Earnings/contract

Catalyst: at highs, contract

Levels: Buy above $16.32 (year resistance) for $18-$20, $14 huge resistance, may also bounce at $15.50

BCOR die and spike pattern on spike b/o with lots of green candles

Category: Earnings/contract

Catalyst: at highs, contract, low float high short

Levels: $8 key area for $9

MITK break three year highs and first green day on earnings news, gap up and morning spike, going over highs in afternoon after bouncing at $7

Category: Earnings/contract

Catalyst: Above 3 year highs, contract, first green day, up 20%

Levels: $7.50, RL $7.20 (4%)

Other earnings winners and levels: AMD ($3.80, RL $3.74(2%)) BEAT ($15.86, RL $15.40 (3%)), SONS (Bounce $8.30, $9, RL $8.67 (4%)),

AXAS commodity oil linked broken highs, overextended? Dying long term but spikeable

Category: Overextended

Catalyst:

Levels:  Below $1.40 for $1.20 (16%) RL $1.50 (7%)

PRGN, SINO, GLBS, ULTR, DRYS all spiking in correlation with PRGN huge gain of 600% in one day. PRGN could spike again above $2.20.  If it does, other plays should spike. Watch for fall early next week.

Watchlist delay

Sometimes takes over and unfortunately gets in the way, I won't be putting out a watchlist for 28th April in time for the market open. I will put up my recap for 27th April ASAP and then resume normal daily watchlists from tonight.

Some things I've learnt this week:
1.In a hot market, spikeability in low float stocks is huge and they just keep running

2. You can only be bearish at times when the momentum turns in this market (sometimes despite the company's having poor fundamentals) remember that 3/4 stocks follow the market

April 27th Daily Watchlist - 9 rewatches, 5 new watches

Prior Day Market: S&P – up 0.1%; NSDQ microcap – up 1%;

Top watches - $FMSA $BCEI $CBAY $GSL $DRWI $SAH

Having to get meticulous with my watches, narrowing down my searches and choosing only the better plays to watch.

Top watches à

FMSA high short Ratio could squeeze on breakouts above $4 but bearish view. Short below $3.80 targeting $3.50 and $3.20. Potential HOT PLAY as spikes historically have been met with quick selling after four/five days and 1.6x price in 10 days.

BCEI stock nearly doubled in ten days and fundamentally weak, showed a change in momentum here, could not break previous day high of $3.90, 7 times in two days (30 min candle), should fall to $3.40 and if strong b/d to $3. Good one to watch tomorrow. Energy plays seem to be hot at the moment but “lesser” companies will begin to crack.

CBAY had really low volume all day until spike in last 10 minutes pushing above $2.64 and finishing at $2.81. Look for rejection at $2.89 for momentum shift downwards, and break below $2.64 for big move down to $2. Previous spikes of three/four days met with selling.

GSL up from $1.30 to $1.8 but lots of historical resistance above $2 line. Always dropped on spikes. Look for rejection at $2.10 or $2 to short. Fundamentals support theory that this is up on manipulation. This is one to watch in next few days if volume picks up!! Consolidating after three strong previous green days, good for short below $1.80 for fall to $1.50. SHORT.

DRWI spiked in April, now bouncing with no news, looks like CFO sold $4million in shares after close yesterday. Short below $6.40 and b/d $6.20, bitter shareholders from price drop will sell into spike. Low market cap and overextended on book value. SHORT

SAH is an automotive repair/dealer with fairly large cap. Watch for break around $20, prior spikes have fallen. Earnings winner so looking for b/o above $19.20 for $1 per share and above $20.20 good b/o. BUY

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Multi-day watch à

UNXL had a double top. If it cannot break $2.25 support on high volume another potential short back to $1.75 again.

LGCY oil and gas play – hot sector! broke out above $1.60 ish on high volume. Long term crow pattern (dying), always falls on spikes to lower lows. Look for consolidation then weakness. Consolidating below $3. Good for short to $2.40 and $2 target below that.

AVXL up on positive Alzheimer drug news. $6.35 BO and $6.50 push through on high volume. Fundamental’s not dire but would consider shorting below $5.90. B/d below $5.90 but bounced. Mistake suggesting to short below $5.90 on good news!! Especially with biotech sector reaching new highs. Look for b/o.

BTUUQ pink sheet highly volatile and liquid. Gone from $0.60 to $1.60 in ten days. $1.78 high to break. Poor company stats but potential for high squeeze given 58% short ratio.  Squeeze during morning spike and high volume by 26% but lost all gains in afternoon. Losing momentum, watch for green to red switch.

VKTX broke $1.55 in morning spike on high volume. From $1.20 to $1.7 region in four days (40% gain). BO above $1.80 and holding $1.65, previous spikes always sold into (LT downtrend) so look for change in momentum to the downside with first red day; green red switch on daily. On breaking previous day close and low it fell in panic and bounced around $1.40. Breaking back below $1.50 good for short to $1.35.

First day watch à

SMMT massive volume and approaching yearly highs of $13.20 up on FDA clearance for US testing phase 2. Only interested if breaks yearly highs for b/o and strong volume. BUY

CALL a good spike and drop historically, quite a big company with ok fundamentals. 18% shares short leaving room for good squeeze. B/o above $6.40 with potential for $7-$7.20 if high vol. squeeze. BUY

GPL b/o of key resistance level since start of 2013. Trebled from 50 cents/share to $1.50 but will it reject at $1.75, could cause big sell off from long term shareholders as seen in the past. Looks like a Rodman and Renshaw pump and dump, let’s see how high this can go before the dump.

Secondary Watches à

RPRX began falling finally, at $2.50 area, strong area for break below. Down on day below $2.5 as expected during high vol. in morning. Could not break $2.40. If it can break $2.20 it could drop towards $1.

SEED is a classic pump and dump pattern where spikes always met by rapid price falls. Strong movement at end of day as a result of changing directors pulling above previous high of $2.26. Look for dump. Gap up after hours was met by furious panic selling on open after news went public, did not bounce strong. B/d below $2.08 could head to $1.80 but bulk move is now gone.

NEOT breakout above 1.22. Not a great short squeeze opportunity. High volume trading but news not apparent. Gone from $0.70 to $1.20. Holding $1.25 intraday but finishing low. Stock has now doubled. Drop of 10% intraday after breaking $1.25. Will not trade below $1 but potential to fall to $0.70-$0.80 below $1.

HTM 52W highs after breaking $0.70. Key resistance at $0.85 area. Renewable energy play with ok fundamentals and at book value. Not a great play IMO but overextended, and SEC filing reveals shares financed at a discount at $0.72 area. Watch on back.

CCLP gas and oil play from $6.50 to $9 in four days. Expecting fall after fourth green day. Target $8.20 (7%). Broke above high of $9.18 and went to $10, historically $10 has been strong support. Momentum turning round and looking good below $9.10.

MCUR has crappy company fundamentals IMO. Down 17% on the day and bounced at $1.25 like predicted. Putting on next day watchlist to see extent of bounce but will only look for shorts now, cannot even hold two days of gains.

April 26th Daily Watchlist Recap - 14 rewatches, 10 new watches

Day Market: S&P – up 0.1%; NSDQ microcap – up 1%;

Top watches tomorrow - $FMSA $BCEI $CBAY $GSL

Multi-day watch à

RPRX began falling finally, at $2.50 area, strong area for break below. Down on day below $2.5 as expected during high vol. in morning. Could not break $2.40. If it can break $2.20 it could drop towards $1.

FMSA high short Ratio could squeeze on breakouts. B/o above $4 in afternoon but faded to $3.89 for finish. First red day, is momentum switching? Could be a good short below $3.80 targeting $3.50 and $3.20. HOT PLAY POTENTIAL SHORT. Spikes historically have been met with quick selling after four/five days and 1.6x gain as is present.

BCEI stock nearly doubled in ten days and fundamentally weak, will be looking for change in momentum to short. Change in momentum here, could not break previous day high of $3.90, 7 times in two days (30 min candle), should fall to $3.40 and if strong b/d to $3. Good one to watch tomorrow.

SEED is a classic pump and dump pattern where spikes always met by rapid price falls. Strong movement at end of day as a result of changing directors pulling above previous high of $2.26. Look for dump. Gap up after hours was met by furious panic selling on open after news went public, did not bounce strong. B/d below $2.08 could head to $1.80 but bulk move is now gone.

NEOT breakout above 1.22. Not a great short squeeze opportunity. High volume trading but news not apparent. Gone from $0.70 to $1.20. Holding $1.25 intraday but finishing low. Stock has now doubled. Drop of 10% intraday after breaking $1.25. Will not trade below $1 but potential to fall to $0.70-$0.80 below $1.

KCG at 52 week and ALL time high of $13.60. Broke down below $13.50 but bounced at $13.40. Broke up above previous high of $13.84 and finishing above $14. Messy pattern so not that interested.

FCSC, I am expecting $3 support breakdown to $2.75-$2.50, Morning spike to $3.78 from put immediately dropped on open and bounced at $3.10. Dropped below $3 on low volume, went higher in the afternoon. Did not play as expected and nothing really on the table.

UNXL had a double top. If it cannot break $2.25 another potential short back to $1.75 again.

EXK, PLG uptrending metal plays. If it breaks $3 should be good for $2.75. Same analysis, low volume on Friday. Looking for break below $3.6 on EXK. PLG could be breaking $3 region and good for $0.25. Removing off watchlist, haven’t risen enough in few days on watchlist and choppy – cannot se pattern so sitting out. PLG analysis incorrect, did not break to $2.75 as it met short term resistance at $2.90. Again, big move has already happened, taking off watchlist.

ZEUS near 52W high at 20.59, trending up over past ten days with tendency for morning spike and afternoon pullback. Looked like it was consolidating below $19.75 in past five days before breaking out. Below $19.90 looks good for 11% to $18 downwards. Morning panic restored by b/o above high of $21. Low trading volume so will discontinue watching.

LGCY oil and gas play – hot sector! broke out above $1.60 ish on high volume. Long term crow pattern (dying), always falls on spikes to lower lows. Look for consolidation then weakness. Consolidating below $3. Good for short to $2.40 and $2 target below that.

First day watch à

GSL up from $1.30 to $1.8 but lots of historical resistance above $2 line. Always dropped on spikes. Look for rejection at $2.10 or $2 to short. Fundamentals support theory that this is up on manipulation. This is one to watch in next few days if volume picks up!! Consolidating after three strong previous green days, good for short below $1.80 for fall to $1.50. SHORT.

MCUR has crappy company fundamentals IMO. Down 17% on the day and bounced at $1.25 like predicted. Putting on next day watchlist to see extent of bounce but will only look for shorts now, cannot even hold two days of gains.

AVXL up on positive Alzheimer drug news. $6.35 BO and $6.50 push through on high volume. Fundamental’s not dire but would consider shorting below $5.90. B/d below $5.90 but bounced. Mistake suggesting to short below $5.90 on good news!! Especially with biotech sector reaching new highs.

BTUUQ pink sheet highly volatile and liquid. Gone from $0.60 to $1.60 in ten days. $1.78 high to break. Poor company stats but potential for high squeeze given 58% short ratio.  Squeeze during morning spike and high volume by 26% but lost all gains in afternoon. Losing momentum, watch for green to red switch.

VSTM broke out at $1.73 intraday in afternoon and third green day. Historically this should turn so looking for momentum shift. Appears to have broken out with catalyst of changing staff. Momentum shift as expected due to historicals. Off the main watchlist but see if it breaks on a bounce.

VKTX broke $1.55 in morning spike on high volume. From $1.20 to $1.7 region in four days (40% gain). BO above $1.80 and holding $1.65, previous spikes always sold into (LT downtrend) so look for change in momentum to the downside with first red day; green red switch on daily. On breaking previous day close and low it fell in panic and bounced around $1.40. Breaking back below $1.50 good for short to $1.35.

Secondary Watches à

ONTY only interesting if it breaks or rejects from $1.80 area, recent spike met with fall. Back watchlist. Remove.

CBAY big break potential above $2.60. Just watching for PA, sat at POC of $2.50 historically.  Back watchlist. Really low volume all day until buys in last 10 minutes pushing above $2.60 and finishing at $2.81. Look for rejection at $2.89 for momentum shift downwards.

STS up to new yearly highs on positive earnings play. Back watchlist and remove

SRPT hugeeee bounce of $10.50. Watching for price action.  Remove

RIGL held $2.80 strong resistance into close down from $2.90. Break above $2.97 on upgrade news to Neutral as catalyst. Won’t short on good news and ok fundamentals. Same analysis, no volatility. Playing positively and only see shorts but won’t short on good catalyst as it would be a risky short.

CCLP gas and oil play from $6.50 to $9 in four days. Expecting fall after fourth green day. Target $8.20 (7%). Broke above high of $9.18 and went to $10, historically $10 has been strong support. Momentum turning round and looking good below $9.10. 

April 26th Daily Watchlist - 14 rewatches, 10 new watches

Prior Day Market: S&P – down -0.3%; NSDQ – down -0.2%;

Top watches - $RPRX $VKTX $GSL $SEED $MCUR

Multi-day watch à

RPRX began falling finally, at $2.50 area, strong area for break below.

FMSA high short Ratio could squeeze on breakouts. BUY ON BREAKOUT. Broke down in morning but finishing near open, still for $4 BO.

BCEI big opportunity on breakout for a squeeze. Gapped up and went to $3.95 from prior day close at $3.50. $3.95 for BO but stock nearly doubled in ten days and fundamentally weak, will be looking for change in momentum to short.

SEED is a classic pump and dump pattern where spikes always met by rapid price falls. Strong movement at end of day as a result of changing directors pulling above previous high of $2.26. Look for dump.

NEOT breakout above 1.22. Not a great short squeeze opportunity. High volume trading but news not apparent. Gone from $0.70 to $1.20. Holding $1.25 intraday but finishing low. Stock has now doubled.

KCG at 52 week and ALL time high of $13.60. Broke down below $13.50 but bounced at $13.40.

FCSC, I am expecting $3 support breakdown to $2.75-$2.50, Morning spike to $3.78 from put immediately dropped on open and bounced at $3.10.

UNXL had a double top. Finishing down so potential for $1.75-$2 below $2.25. Could not break above $2.25 in morning, immediate short below $2 and reached $1.75 as expected. Most of gains now lost, potential for $1.30 if $1.75 breaks.

EXK, PLG uptrending metal plays. If it breaks $3 should be good for $2.75. Same analysis, low volume on Friday. Looking for break below $3.6 on EXK. PLG could be breaking $3 region and good for $0.25.

ZEUS near 52W high at 20.59, trending up over past ten days with tendency for morning spike and afternoon pullback. Looked like it was consolidating below $19.75 in past five days before breaking out. Below $19.90 looks good for 11% to $18 downwards.

LGCY oil and gas play – hot sector! broke out above $1.60 ish on high volume. Long term crow pattern (dying), always falls on spikes to lower lows. Breakout above high but look for signs of weakness, fundamentals poor and no news. Sixth green day now and extended almost tripled in five days!! (at high) Lost a majority of morning gains finishing at $2.40. Look for consolidation then weakness.

First day watch à

MCUR went up $0.50 to close at $1.64 yesterday after rejecting at $2 with high volume. BO above $1.80. BD below $1.55 for $0.30 to $0.40 (25%). Crappy company fundamentals IMO.

AVXL up on positive Alzheimer drug news. $6.35 BO and $6.50 push through on high volume. Fundamental’s not dire but would consider shorting below $5.90.

BTUUQ pink sheet highly volatile and liquid. Gone from $0.60 to $1.60 in ten days. $1.78 high to break. Poor company stats but potential for high squeeze given 58% short ratio.  

VSTM broke out at $1.73 intraday in afternoon and third green day. Historically this should turn so looking for momentum shift. Appears to have broken out with catalyst of changing staff.

VKTX broke $1.55 in morning spike on high volume. From $1.20 to $1.7 region in four days (40% gain). BO above $1.80 and holding $1.65, previous spikes always sold into (LT downtrend) so look for change in momentum to the downside with first red day; green red switch on daily.

GSL up from $1.30 to $1.8 but lots of historical resistance above $2 line. Always dropped on spikes. Look for rejection at $2.10 or $2 to short. Fundamentals support theory that this is up on manipulation. This is one to watch in next few days if volume picks up!!

Secondary Watches à

ONTY only interesting if it breaks or rejects from $1.80 area, recent spike met with fall. Back watchlist.

CBAY big break potential above $2.60. Just watching for PA, sat at POC of $2.50 historically.  Back watchlist

STS up to new yearly highs on positive earnings play. Back watchlist

SRPT hugeeee bounce of $10.50. Watching for price action.  

RIGL held $2.80 strong resistance into close down from $2.90. Break above $2.97 on upgrade news to Neutral as catalyst. Won’t short on good news and ok fundamentals. Same analysis, no volatility.

CCLP gas and oil play from $6.50 to $9 in four days. Expecting fall after fourth green day. Target $8.20 (7%).